We will enter a period that will be a series of terrible dramas: Hristo Grozev gave an interview to Mikhail Zygar - about the possible exchange of Navalny and the circumstances of his death. The investigator believes that the murders of Putin's critics may continue - Meduza

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Four years ago, FSB officers tried to poison Alexei Navalny. Then  Bellingcat investigative journalist Hristo Grozev was able to find them. Shortly before Navalny's funeral, writer Mikhail Zygar spokewith Grozev about how he worked on a possible exchange of the politician together with the oppositionist’s associates in the FBK - and at what stage the investigation into Navalny’s murder is now. Grozev also said that in his opinion, Navalny may not be the last goal of Vladimir Putin, whose possible motivation is to prove to the West that Russia no longer has red lines. Meduza retells this interview with abbreviations (not all of Grozev’s remarks are his verbatim quotes, but their meaning is preserved).

About the investigation into Navalny’s murder (Grozev’s team is working on it together with FBK)

I can say that there is data, although they [the authorities] are hiding much more than before. Because they learned how not to leave traces from our previous investigations. But still, they continue to make mistakes, and so I am confident that we will find [the culprits]. But the very behavior of the authorities indicates that they have something to hide. The behavior of the authorities indicates fear, apprehension. And I think that we will find the reason for this fear soon.

[For now] it is impossible to draw a conclusion based on incomplete data, but purely analytically [you can] consider this issue. I believe that this is definitely a conditional “Novichok”. Because what they tried to do with Novichok in 2020, they very likely and very possibly tried to finish it in the same way. Because otherwise there remains another unfinished murder by Novichok, in which they have invested so many years and so much money that it is impossible to leave this [case] unfinished.

About negotiations on the exchange of Navalny for FSB officer Krasikov

I apologize that I will not say everything, because there is a process that is not completed. There are other political prisoners whose fate we will continue to work on.

It was a long process that began more than a year and a half ago, maybe two years ago, when Masha [Pevchikh] and I decided that we needed to find a way to achieve Alexei’s freedom after the start of the war.

Firstly, because after the start of the war it became clear that all the red lines [the Russian authorities] had already crossed and that there was no longer any political and reputational cost for the Putin regime. Consequently, there is no thing that previously held Putin back to complete the assassination attempt on Alexei. Secondly, because Alexey had to become the loudest and most visible opponent of the war in order to end it as soon as possible. [We thought that] he could do this better in freedom than in prison. […] although no one asked him, we decided that the moral mathematics had changed, which forced him to return [to Russia] before the start of the war. And this process began, which was very long and very difficult.

Why did they try to exchange Navalny for Krasikov?

From the very beginning, it was clear to me who was the most valuable to Putin of all the spies who are in prison in the civilized world - Krasikov.

Because I have been involved in this investigation since the day of his assassination attempt [on Zelimkhan Khangoshvili ]. I tried to find a description of him [Khangoshvili], but he was really a refugee, a participant in hostilities during the Chechen war, and so on. Putin called him a terrorist. But this is an epithet, a value judgment that needs to be proven. He [Putin] only spoke words. From that day on, it became clear that he [Krasikov] is a very important guy. Why?

First: for such key and significant assassination attempts, people who have already earned something are used. For example, with the attempted assassination of the Skripals - the people who went there were already heroes of Russia for other merits, right? That is, they [the authorities] give the heroes of Russia such tasks that are very symbolic, very ostentatious. And this is not some kind of obligation, this is a privilege for the person who will attempt to kill a Chechen in the center of Berlin - who, apparently, was a very important enemy for Putin. Because never again in history have we seen Putin justify murder so often and openly and call the victim all sorts of [expletive] words - apparently this was an important goal for Putin. And therefore, to send there an unimportant, ordinary FSB officer - well, this is illogical.

And secondly, during the investigation it became clear that Krasikov received a lot of awards, [...] he was considered an exemplary [employee]. And it also became clear that he had participated in other assassination attempts before, which can also be associated with the interests of the Kremlin, with the interests of Putin.

Read more about the details of the deal between Russia and the West

We began to build a deal in which many countries participated. Where, on the one hand, Russia had to release American citizens, who increased during our project, because they arrested our colleague, Evan Gershkovich . But there [were] a certain number of political prisoners - they practically tried to [exchange] them all. But to do this, it was necessary to find the same number of criminals, murderers, or simply Russian spies sitting in Western prisons. This is my task, this is what I do, I was investigating exactly this topic - it was logical for me to look for and create such lists. And it is logical that there were many such [criminals].

They are in different countries - in America, in Europe, in Poland, in Norway, in Brazil. We have created some kind of list for sharing. There were high hopes that it would become a listing for the real deal. And optimism the day before the murder was very high. But the next morning we learned this sad news.

Grozev claims that Putin knew about the exchange plan - the details were probably told to him by Roman Abramovich, who acted as a negotiator

When I watched the interview [of Vladimir Putin with Tucker Carlson], I already knew what I’m telling you now. I actually looked at him [Putin] and thought how angry he was that he was brazenly offered Alexei Navalny in exchange for Krasikov. He addressed directly the Americans, whom Putin really considers the owners of Germany. He began to say: “What are you doing, call this vassal of yours and tell him to give me Krasikov, and I’ll give you Evan [Gershkovich]. […] It was a cry from the heart for me. He was somehow [very] indignant about this proposal. Then I was a little afraid. But the most important thing for me then was that the West should not deviate and remain with its own. And they remained their ground until the last: “We want Navalny.”

About a new group of Kremlin spies after the disclosure of Petrov and Bashirov

[Declassified intelligence officers] were left for internal tasks - including participation in the war against Ukraine, where they do not have to show their faces and travel with passports, because the authorities closed this chapter [for them] forever.

They trained new [people] for international operations. They are all about 10-15 years younger than Bashirov and Petrov. There, their birth years range from 93 to 98, and they are trained for international terrorist operations. The good thing is that we know them all.

That the killings of political prisoners and oppositionists may continue

[My source] hinted after Alexei's death that this was not the last incident. I don’t want to make predictions, but I’m really afraid that Putin’s motivation was this murder to prove to the West that it no longer has red lines, and thus force them to negotiate Ukraine on their own terms.

[…] he [Putin] most likely has [a lot] of these signal shots - you know, like in films where there are hostages who are captured. And when the mafia starts killing them one by one before they give them, say, 10 million in suitcases. It seems to me that now we will enter a period that will be a series of terrible dramas. Putin will give a signal to the West that if you are not ready to negotiate, it will be even worse.

It's better to be prepared for the worst-case scenario and [do everything] to prevent it from happening than to wear rose-colored glasses.