OSINT Suggests Around Half Of Moskva's Crew Killed Or Injured
OSINT Suggests Around Half Of Moskva's Crew Killed Or Injured
The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showing a parade of the Moskva's crew. This follows the loss of the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet flagship, reportedly to Ukrainian missiles, on April 13/14. It makes sober watching.
Analysis of the footage suggests that approximately 240 crew members were present. This is out of a crew of around 510.
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The video, shared on Facebook and Twitter, says that the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy, Admiral Nikolay Evmenov, met the crew. Also present at the meeting in Sevastopol was the new 'command of the Black Sea Fleet'. I have geolocated the event to a parade ground at 44.564798°, 33.416280°.
Like other parade grounds associated with the Russian Navy there are formation markings on the ground. These are visible in satellite imagery and aid estimation. Based on analysis of the photographs I estimate around 90 officers and warrant officers and 130 enlisted personnel were present. This assumes two ranks of equal numbers. Caveats apply, I am sure there will be alternative estimates. But the figure is in the ballpark of half the crew.
Some crew may be injured of course, and we can be confident that some died. Additionally, there were reports of some being rescored by Turkish or other 3rd country ships. If so, they too may not be present (I haven't confirmed either way).
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Moskva caught fire some time before 18:52 local time on April 13. At this time she was seen on Sentinel 1 satellite imagery with other ships already providing assistance. The cause of the fire is disputed, but reports of a Ukrainian missile attack are plausible. Whatever the cause, it seems clear that she exploded and that she has sunk.
CLICK to enlarge.
Inconsistencies in video
There is a suggestion that the video is of a prior event. Most tellingly, a person closely matching the ship's captain, Anton Kuprin, is seen. He is wearing the rank of Captain 1st Rank and acting in the position of command. Kuprin has widely been reported as dead, killed in the explosion.
Note that in a file image, widely circulated, Kuprin is shown as a Captain 2nd rank. Evidence suggests that he was promoted in 2020 or earlier.
The loss of such a large portion of the crew is not unexpected. In fact many expected more killed.
It is possible that the parade was not exactly as it has been portrayed. However I do think that it is believable that it is a complete sham. Not least, if it were, then more sailors should have been present. All parades look staged. So it may be exactly what it says it is.
However it is possible that reports of his death were incorrect. Note that a truck with the infamous 'Z' shape marking is seen in the background.
Overall, it seems more plausible that a) Kurpin survived and b) more of the crew survived than are popularly speculated. It is still a shocking loss for the Russian Navy in both personnel and equipment.
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